This applies to biology as for the economyOscillation situations have already been met56 to 13613 dollar while it had declined 3Hire stars of football has never been the guarantee of winning the matchIn Britain TMobile and the operator 3 already doMarch 19 the international monetary fund has given the tempoWhat get the bankers to excellent managersEvery word is weighed each taking soupesée positionSomething has changed in the country of financeInformation immediately contradicted by the BankBankers to business, specialists of the introductions on the stock market, already prepare for year-end updates very economy turns south. With 745 introductions on the stock market in the world on eleven months, the activity is at the lowest level period comparable since 1995, according to the data of Ernst & Young.
In terms of capital raised, the entries in the stock market represented a total amount of 95.3 billion, up from $ 256,9 billion at the same time a year earlier ( 63). The current configuration recalled the beginning of the 2000s, where the lifted volumes did not exceed the bar of the $ 100 billion over the year globally between 2001 and 2003.
Above all, the number of deferred or cancelled introductions rose to 308 since the beginning of the year, one above since 2000, according to Dealogic, arrested in mid-December. Amount, the aborted operations recorded a record 61.7 billion (1).
For illustration, stock of Deutsche Bahn implementation originally scheduled end of October, has been postponed sine die. "Privatization of large size with good visibility could not be done: it is a strong indicator of the closure of the market", said Laurent Capes, primary market manager France at Deutsche Bank. The entries to the rating of Enea or Resolution, conducted recently, were "both very atypical, resumed." "For one, Vattenfall has taken important strategic participation, while for the other operation was placed with a limited number of investors, relatives of the founder of the society".
Dropping out of the emerging
Even the introductions in emerging markets, who wore the dynamism of the market last year, have fallen sharply: end of November, the transmitters of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) lifted 28 billion through 163 operations (which of China Railway Construction, the second most big of the year at the world level), against 119 billion over the whole of 2007.
The trend should not improve immediately. The theory of "decoupling" of economies passed to the trap, experts expect to entries on the stock exchange limited and reserved for local investors in developing countries. "It will take time for investors to renege on these markets, note Xavier Larnaudie, co-lead of the syndication shares of Calyon." 2009 could be worse than 2008 in terms of the introductions in the world. Unless there is a surprise positive in the second half, which will depend very much of the stock market situation.
Same analysis for Thierry Olive, responsible for primary market shares in BNP Paribas: "I have rarely seen so uncertainties on the activity." There is no doubt not many introductions during at least 6-9 months. Games, to see the big names expected as the position or the French doubt the market
Professionals still believe that the primary market will still support in the coming months, capital increases (including those with preferential subscription right, the way preferred in Europe). "It will be seen for recapitalisations in industrial sectors that suffer from the crisis, which could be followed in a second time, by increases in capital to fund acquisitions", concludes the Deutsche Bank expert.
