From January 2006 the increase is only 0Beautiful person draws The Princess of Cleves A business grammar decidedly variable geometryThe new ceiling be zero rate loan it says in the Elysee PalaceReconstruction of facts said us anything else000 daily barrels in November either 645This represents nearly 190000 young each yearThe unsuccessful will be many including in the ranks of the French banksA calendar of ambitious if not unrealisticThese software can be divided into two categoriesEmergency meeting with Ministers of the economic sphere, massive revision of the forecast growth for this year, forced arbitrations budget 2009: the economic agenda of the Government in recent weeks has left little room for optimism. And they are not economists, gathered the week last plenary session of the Council of economic analysis at Matignon, which will have reassured François Fillon. Despite the relaxation on oil prices and the exchange rate of the euro, "there was a consensus that no indicator that comes out at the moment is bearer of good news", summarizes a member. Yesterday, the economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, confirmed the forecast of growth "around 1 " in 2008, adding that the beginning of 2009 will be "at the bottom of the"U"" with first two quarters "in redépart".
"Everything is wrong".
Among the two reports of the CAE presented to François Fillon and made public Friday, on the "export of the France and the Germany performance" has even douché hopes that reformulates, each year, the Government. Based on business data, he recalled that between 1995 and 2007 the France, of which 96 of the exports are in head-on competition with German products, lost 30 of market share in world exports of goods and services. At the same time, the Germany limited its decline to 5 and the other countries of the OECD at 15. "The diagnosis is that everything is going wrong," thus summarized, Friday, Lionel Fontagné, Professor at Paris-I and co-author of the report with Guillaume Gaulier (France Bank).
Lower costs
The Germany won more often against the France, if, by now known diagnosis, because the first initiated a strategy of lowering its cost, via a pressure on wages but also the purchase of its intermediate consumption in the neighbouring countries. "When we had a difference of price with the Germany, each could sell its products." "When prices fell in Germany, we no longer sold", summarizes Lionel Fontagné, noting that French companies could also make the choice to develop directly on their markets of consumption (abroad), then renounced the export from the France.
Focus on efficiency
When government policies often included to boost the number of exporting enterprises, should be rather consolidate those already present on foreign markets, considers the report of the CAE. "The positions acquired by French exporters are difficult to take." "There is many entries but also many outputs of multiple failures", emphasize the authors, who call however preferred a policy "boosting the level of effectiveness" of the business. "The export is not a legitimate objective of economic policy, thus challenging perspective authors. It is interesting that in it returns us the image of the performance of the economy in terms of the offer.
If the CAE economists could reinforce François Fillon in holding the only policy that is sustainable, the crisis was the continuation of structural reforms, they did not gave him key to the immediate calendar. Bercy will this week the evolution of inflation in August, industrial production and foreign trade in July and the final figures of employment in the second quarter. What stop its decision on the level of growth for next year.
