Hire stars of football has never been the guarantee of winning the matchIn Britain TMobile and the operator 3 already doMarch 19 the international monetary fund has given the tempoWhat get the bankers to excellent managersEvery word is weighed each taking soupesée positionSomething has changed in the country of financeInformation immediately contradicted by the BankWhy not but it is really not the purpose of the debateEspecially lately among investment banksHis pen was soaked in a liquid waterproofThe US employment figures announced yesterday have tripped the greenback. In the evening, the euro was 0.56, to 1,3613 dollar, while it had declined 3.3 since the beginning of the year. The pound sterling appreciated by 1.32, to 1,5114 dollar. Against the Japanese currency, the greenback dropped 1.03, to 92,69 yen.
Job creation in the private sector in the US, measured by ADP, proved to be very lower than forecast. The US economy has destroyed 693.000 positions in December. The Institute changed its methodology, this figure looks more close to that of the Department of labour, published tomorrow. The prospects for consumption are therefore very dark. Committee meeting on 16 December the Fed monetary policy, has also not hidden its concern about the cyclical deterioration. For him, the activity should contract still in the first half of this year, as noted the minutes Tuesday evening.
Hopes of a recovery plan
"At the height of the crisis, the foreign exchange market does not focused as much on economic fundamentals, said Valerie Perez, at Deutsche Bank." Today, it returned, but opinions change as very quickly. "In fact, earlier this week, the dollar has benefited from hopes of a recovery plan ambitious and imminent led by Obama. The strategist of Deutsche Bank stresses that volatility remains high on the foreign exchange market, and this, even on a long term. 20 To maturity of one year, it camped on an abnormally high level. In addition, liquidity is still low on the market, which tends to exaggerate movement.
In these circumstances, it is difficult to anticipate the trend, at least to the monthly us employment report. Then, the theme of the lower rates could return to the top and weigh on the euro. The market is thinking that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce the rent of money of 25 basis points on January 15. The latest figures for inflation in the euro area, to 1.6, confirmed that the issuing Institute had free rein to lower rates. Dresdner, a gesture of 50 basis points is possible.
Several experts also note that January is generally favourable to the greenback. Over the past ten years, weighted index of the dollar provided a positive performance in the first month of the year in 71 of cases, from Dresdner.
Reserve currency
Longer term, a sword of Damocles is nevertheless suspended over U.S. currency: the reserve Federal American, through its actions for the recovery of the liquidity in the markets, is launched in a monetization process. The creation of money supply is harmful to the currency. The question posed by currency traders is whether if these measures will actually translate into such a phenomenon, which will lead to a rebound of inflation or if the United States are in a situation of "liquidity trap". If there is no inflationary rebound, the greenback is less exposed.
On the other hand, if the crisis persists, the dollar may take advantage of its reserve currency status. The IMF figures showed that the share of the dollar in foreign exchange reserves increased significantly in the third quarter of 2008 compared to the second, to 64.6. The euro fell to 25.5 per cent and the pound sterling to 4.6. The dollar's rise explains not only these changes.
