This represents nearly 190000 young each yearThe unsuccessful will be many including in the ranks of the French banksA calendar of ambitious if not unrealisticThese software can be divided into two categoriesBush is still the tenant of the White HouseAnd the crisis could last about two yearsThe leverage of debt reduction process will take years5 and 7 this year a sharp drop after the 9The first the prior notice of at least two months vAmount the aborted operations recorded a record 61Some argue for a drastic reduction. Others deem not necessary to touch the current quotas. Between the two camps, the Organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) will have to find a difficult compromise. A month and a half after having decided to withdraw from the market the equivalent of 1.2 million barrels per day in the hope to stem the fall of the price of crude, the members of the cartel meet today in Abuja, the Nigerian capital, to discuss possible new measures.
Any, because the decline occurred since November 1 clearly had the desired effect: in a few days, the voluntary reduction of quotas put an end to three months of almost uninterrupted decline in the course of black gold. They evolve from $ 60 per barrel autour. To 21 p.m. (Paris time), yesterday in New York, a barrel of "light sweet crude" benchmark for delivery in January was 35 cents, to $ 61,37. At the same time in London, the North Sea brent oil lost 12 cents, to $ 61,40.
Certain lack of discipline
The question now is whether if OPEC is satisfied with current levels or if, under the influence of its "Hawks", she wants a little more dry market and bid up prices. By the voice of us energy Secretary, Sam Bodman, and of the International Energy Agency yesterday (IEA), which depends on the OECD, the major consumer countries clearly asked the cartel to do nothing.
In its latest monthly report, the IEA considers that the decline in production decided late October might already "making more tense market this winter" (read below). Defenders of the status quo, a new reduction in the production of the cartel fall even more poorly that the global economy is showing signs of weakness. The World Bank has estimated in a report that it is "at a turning point" and that the real estate crash or overheating risks are be void. In this context, a decrease in OPEC's production "would probably extend further oil markets and affect the rich and poor importing countries at a time when economic growth seems more fragile than at any time since 2001", prevents a Lehman Brothers analyst, quoted by the AFP.
Provided that crude prices are maintained at the current level, the representatives of the Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Nigeria and the Libya seemed to be judging, yesterday, that a further reduction in their quotas was not an "absolute necessity". Conversely, the Iranian delegates, Algerians and Venezuelans consider that global oil inventories remain too high and militate for a lessening of the production.
He will return to the leader of the cartel, Saudi Arabia, the synthesis between its distant views. Yesterday, on his arrival in Abuja, the Saudi Arabia's oil Minister, Ali al-Nouaïmi, recognized that "the fundamentals of the market" were "much better than they did in October" and found that the market was heading "towards a better stability. Yet, according to him, the Organization of petroleum exporting countries has probably still "a bit of work to do".
A compromise solution could be to better enforce the previous decision, which the implementation shows a certain lack of discipline among member countries. According to the IEA, OPEC would have actually reduced its production 555.000 daily barrels in November, either 645.000 barrels or 54 per cent less than expected. An expert of the cartel, estimated yesterday that the objective of stabilization of the market may be considered if an actual decline of 900,000 barrels per day was observed.
